Reduced production increased, ABS/PS market rise in January?
At the beginning of the New Year, the cost side support gradually increased, the maintenance of some devices decreased the negative boost, and the price of petrochemical manufacturers actively increased, which led to the rise of the ABS/PS market in January, but the downstream has a conflict mentality against the high price of goods, and the trading atmosphere is cool. From the latest tracking situation, ABS parking maintenance this month involves about 2 million tons of production capacity, a decrease of 47.4% from last month; PS parking maintenance involves about 1.82 million tons of production capacity, an increase of 30% from the previous month.
The operating rate of ABS equipment has declined, and some enterprises have been forced to reduce their negative performance. From Table 1, Sinopec Ineos Benzenling (Ningbo), Zhejiang Petrochemical, Liaoning Jinfa negative production, Zhangzhou Qimei after maintenance has restarted at the end of January, Huajin Chemical, Lihua Yilijin in the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2023 has been in a shutdown maintenance state, has not yet restarted, from this point of view, ABS in the short and medium term may continue to decline.
Due to the rise in the pressure of losses in the industry, the PS reduction and shutdown operation increased this month, and the supply reduction was more obvious, and the pressure on the supply side weakened with the early release of some pre-Spring Festival stock demand. From Table 2, An Xing Da, Huizhou Renxin, Ningbo Taihua, Shandong Lanhua, Hebei Baosheng, Tianjin Rentai, Zhangzhou Qimei, Hengshui Baike, Shandong Yuhuang, Shandong Doer, Changke new materials a total of 11 parking maintenance. Some production enterprises also have parking load reduction plans before and after the Spring Festival.
The cost side drives the price of hard glue up, and the supply side stops to reduce the load is certain good, and then as the Spring Festival holiday is gradually approaching, the load of hard glue equipment is declining and the supply is expected to rebound, the downstream demand of the terminal is weakening, and the operation of taking goods is inclined to weak just demand. After the holiday, hard rubber manufacturers do not rule out the possibility of accumulation, it is expected that after the market is closed or first rise and then fall, we need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and raw materials during the Spring Festival and the recovery of demand after the holiday.
